The increase in business with private individuals in the past three months is striking, and partly reflects the pick-up in the housing market from last year's low.

Christmas, in retailing terms, is coming later and later each year as consumers play chicken with the high street and delay their spending in the expectation of late price cuts as the big day draws nearer.

The Bank has chosen to follow a steady course. This is particularly understandable given current mixed economic signals. The slightly less negative recent news from the housing and retail sectors contrasts with increasing pressures on manufacturers from the high cost of fuel and materials. The MPC should stay alert to further weaknesses in the economy and must remain on standby to cut rates over the coming months.

Conditions for manufacturers are getting increasingly tough as costs continue their seemingly inexorable rise but weak demand keeps prices down, squeezing already thin profit margins even further.

A combination of weak consumer spending and challenging world markets is weighing on UK manufacturing.

Although it is too early to say if this month's decline in export demand is the start of a trend, the fall is a further blow for manufacturers at a difficult time. Firms will be hoping this is not the first sign of slow-down in the global economy in the face of the latest oil price increases.

The sustained high level of oil and sharply increased gas prices have driven up energy and raw material costs and manufacturers are continuing to respond by cutting employment to curb the wage bill and boosting investment in efficiency-improving measures.

The slightly less negative recent news from the housing and retail sectors contrasts with increasing pressures on manufacturers from the high cost of fuel and materials.

The service sector in recent years has been an important driver of growth,

With retailing and manufacturing both very weak, the fact that services are slowing is particularly worrying.